The potential for tropical development in the Indian Ocean by early next week marks the beginning of an increase in tropical activity that usually precedes the arrival of India's southwest monsoon. AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a broad area of low pressure over western Indonesia and Malaysia that will drift north over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea into the weekend and beginning of next week. During that time, the low will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear, conditions that are conducive for tropical development.
As the low moves away from larger land masses, friction will decrease and the potential for development will increase.
Forecasters expect this low to develop into a tropical system near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
How quickly the storm is able to strengthen and the exact track it follows will determine how damaging the winds will be and which islands will receive the greatest impacts.
There remains some question on the eventual strength of this system, but it seems probable that it will become a deep depression or a cyclonic storm," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
He added that is would be equivalent to a tropical depression or tropical storm in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
A stronger storm and a path over or just west of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands would lead to more wind damage, especially in northern areas as the storm continues to strengthen.
Regardless of the storm's strength, it is forecast to bring tropical downpours to the islands through the beginning of next week, which will increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
There is uncertainty about the track of the storm during the middle and end of next week as the storm moves north of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
"Areas from Myanmar to Bangladesh have the greatest chance at seeing impacts from this by the middle of end of next week; however, some impacts to northeastern India cannot be ruled out at this point," warned Douty.
The exact track of this feature will also determine how much it is able to strengthen throughout next week.
"There is still moderate to at times strong wind shear across the northern Bay of Bengal which will help to limit strengthening once the low gets far enough to the north," Douty said.
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Indian Sea during the beginning of May.
The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
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